My #ncov2019 predictions (ncov-2019, betacov-wuhan) 27-jan

I am not a medical doctor or a researcher on the field, but let me make some predictions.

  1. First infected patient who was not in China recently (meaning infected abroad) will appear on this thursday, 30th of January. (ack: it was on 28/01 in Germany, but 1st case in US was 30/01)
  2. WHO PHEIC declares on friday ( public health emergencies of international concern) [31/01] (ack, it happened on late 30/01)
  3. Within two weeks (meaning maximum 7/February) quarantine within China will be revoked. Maybe traffic links between China and other countries will be cut instead
  4. First Hungarian infected person acknowledged on 01/Feb or so
  5. Hungary will mask some data instead of clear info distribution and our rate will be 1:100
  6. China might have manipulated real infection numbers in the range 10-100 times

My original consideration was the following: if there was only one victim on 01/Jan and we have 1000 victims on 21/01 , then it is like 10x exponential growth each weak, which is 1,4x growth each day. Recent data aligns with that: 800, 1300, 2000, 2800 victims on recent days, and the same growth rate on death numbers.

However, if we consider originally China misled communitiy with fake numbers and first patient was identified like 17/december/2019 and we still calculate with 10x rate with each week then we get like 100,000 victims as of 21/01, which is close to video based info from nurses in the area.

On the other hand, If I would masquerade the fact the we lied about number of victims, I would report much higher rate of new infections to hide the lower rate of new infections thus I could soon get out of the trap and let the reported number of victims close to the reality. So, e.g we have a daily 1,4 rate for reports, but in the reality it is like 1,2 only. HKU researchers gave number of victims around 25000, and doubling time like 6 days, which is like 1,12x growth each day.

I made a short calculation. Left, a model of growth with 1,4 rate, second column HKU number of infections with HKU 1,12 rate, date, last column, number of infected with an exponential model of 1,2.

As you can see, second model will get close to the reality at 07/02. If the growth rate is basically faked to be 1,4x daily only by calculations, then around 07/feb or gradually until then we will see decline of the growth rate. However, growth rate might decrease also due to the intervence of the events, like informing people, quarantine, etc, This will also surely have some delay effect so growth rate in reality should be already a bit lower, but will be visible only with a real delay, like 2 weeks. Hence, my prediction, around 07/feb we’ll have an official number of 100k infected and a reduced growth rate with press will consider as “epidemic lost strenght” which won’t be true and after another two-three weeks we’ll see a rapid rise of the epidemic again…. that time (08/march) reaching the 1 million infections.

Of course, in the meantime, anything can happen, and again, I’m not an expert on epidemics, I just want to log my guesses to be able to later revise if I was good looking into the crystal ball, or not.

This entry was posted on January 27, 2020 at 8:10 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.